Victory Chronicles
-DAY 229

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RU PRO-WAR FACTIONS FIGHTING

Above: Thousands are still fleeing russia to avoid the draft. (NPR)

• The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community.
• These critiques from the pro-war camp may indicate rising doubts about Putin’s ability to deliver on his promised goal of “denazifying” Ukraine and may undermine Putin’s appeal within his core constituency.
• Other Russian nationalists, propagandists, and proxy officials are blaming security services and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), a phenomenon that can undermine Putin’s regime in the long term.
• The perception of the trajectory of the war and of Ukrainian capabilities is changing as well, and Russians are undergoing a rude awakening.
• Russian voices within the information space demand that the Russian military retaliate for the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion by regaining the initiative on the battlefield and resuming the missile campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
• utin is continuing to shuffle his senior military commanders, likely to deflect blame from himself and to regenerate enthusiasm in the extremist pro-war community.
• The Russian pro-war nationalist community greeted Surovikin’s appointment with irrational enthusiasm.
• Escalation, either conventional or nuclear, cannot solve Putin’s problems.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: New York Times

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 62,870 (+370)
• Tanks, 2,495 (+9)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,149 (+16)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,486/353 (+9/5)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 181 (1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 267/235 (1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,097 (+11)
• Cruise missiles, 249 (2)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,908 (+18)
• Special equipment, 136 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Out of anger for losses, kremlin is expected to increase strikes on civilian infrastructure like attacks on Zaporizhzhya city Saturduy that killed and injured dozens. (Reuters)

• The enemy continues to violate the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare. Thus, during the past day, the occupiers launched 3 rocket and 26 air strikes, carried out more than 75 MLRS attacks from rocket salvo systems.
• At night, the russian occupiers cynically struck the residential buildings and civil infrastructure of Zaporizhzhya. Information about the victims is being clarified, but it is already known about dozens of dead and injured.
• In addition, more than thirty settlements were damaged by fire. In particular, Kharkiv, Chasiv Yar, Popivka, Hrabovskoe, Makiyivka, Spirne, Bilohorivka, Ivanhrad, Opytne, Klishchyiivka, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar, Nikopol, Urozhaine and Davydiv Brid.
• There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• In other directions, the enemy fired mortars and barrel artillery in the areas of populated areas:
  • in the Siversky direction – Lypivka and Mykolaivka of Chernihiv oblast and Lisne and Ryasne of Sumy oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – Chervona Zorya, Veterynarne, Strilecha, Krasne, Ohirtseve, Hlyboke, Zelene, Starytsa, Ternova and Chuhunivka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Pershotravneve, Novoyehoryvka, Makiyivka, Nove, Terny, Serebryanka, Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Verkhnyokamianske, Yakovlivka, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Zaitseve, Vershyn, Zelenopillya and Opytne;
  • in the Avdiyivka direction – Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
  • In the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions, the infrastructure of more than twenty-five settlements was damaged by enemy shelling. Among them – Solodke, Zelene Pole, Novosilka, Vuhledar, Pobyeda. At the same time, as a result of the defeat by the Defense Forces of the concentration of the enemy’s manpower, more than twenty enemy soldiers were confirmed wounded, who were taken to the local hospital of the city of Tokmak.

KHARKIV

Above:  Medical evacuation near Kupyansk. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Burdaka on the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and Terny northeast of Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the Oskil Rver in the direction of Luhansk Oblast and have entered Stel’makhivka (about 18km west of Svatove)

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Residents gather to use Starlink internet access near the fighting in eastern Ukraine. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

• The most tense situation was observed in the Bakhmut and Avdiyivka directions, where our defenders repelled more than 30 enemy attacks.
• Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled over 30 attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas. Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City.
• A similar situation is observed in the Luhansk region. Thus, collaborators began to be evacuated from Starobilsk to Luhansk.
• The occupiers continue to put pressure on small and medium-sized businesses in the temporarily occupied territories. Since the beginning of October, in the city of Horlivka, the tax inspectorate of the russian federation has started inspections with subsequent raiding of companies with detected violations. In particular, this applies to entrepreneurs who did not want to re-register their companies in accordance with russian legislation.

SOUTHERN

Above: Who did it, how, and when the Kerch Strait Bridge will be operative again are all unknown. (Anadolu Agency)

Map via ISW

• Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of Ternovi Pody (approximately 30km northwest of Kherson City)
• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.
• The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community.
• Russian forces targeted residential areas of Zaporizhzhia City with cruise missiles.
• According to available information, in the Melitopol district of the Zaporizhzhya oblast, under the guise of searching for and fighting partisans, the occupying forces search and steal private cars in garage cooperatives of the district.
• The enemy and its henchmen are fleeing, frightened by the successes of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Representatives of the occupying authorities of Nova Kakhovka are taking their families to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. According to available information, on October 7, a convoy of 12 minibusses left for the city of Sevastopol.