Victory Chronicles
-DAY 226

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: FORCED MOBILIZATION OF UKRAINIANS IN NORTHERN LUHANSK

Above: Separatists are desperate for cannon fodder, forcing Luhansk residents to fight against Ukraine. (DW)

• Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones is not generating asymmetric effects the way the Ukrainian use of US-provided HIMARS systems has done and is unlikely to affect the course of the war significantly.
• The Wagner Private Military Company announced the creation of its own private Telegram channel on October 6, indicating that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may want a voice that is clearly his own to compete with milbloggers and possibly Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, who all have their own Telegram channels.
• Local Russian officials appear to be frantically looking for ways to fund their mobilized units as the Kremlin increasingly expects local administrations to pay for the war effort from their own budgets.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 6 that Russian forces began the forced mobilization of Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied Kremmina and Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Eight enemy tanks, 18 howitzers destroyed yesterday in the south. (Ukrinform)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 61,680 (+350)
• Tanks, 2,466 (+17)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,093 (+29)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,455/344 (+31/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 177 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 266/233 (0/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,067 (+20)
• Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,862 (+8)
• Special equipment, 135 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: The enemy sent missiles into residential buildings in Zaporizhzhya this week, killing and injuring dozens. (CBC)

• There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. During this day, the occupiers launched 6 rocket and 7 air strikes, carried out more than 23 MLRS shellings.
• Objects and civilian population of more than 25 settlements were damaged by enemy strikes. Among others, these are Zaporizhzhya, Shepetivka, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Olhivske and Hoptivka.
• In the Volyn and Polissya directions, the situation remains without significant changes.
• The enemy fired in other directions:
  • in the Siversky direction – from barrel artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Senkivka, Yasna Polyana and Bleshnya of the Chernihiv oblast and Seredyna Buda, Kiyanytsia and Fotovyzh of the Sumy oblast, and the Slobozhanskyi direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Uda, Strilcha, Neskuchne, Hatyshche and Vilkhuvatka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Spirne, Bilohorivka, Siversk and Verkhnokamianske;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – from artillery of various types, in the areas of Soledar, Bakhmut, Yakovlivka, Kurdyumivka, New York and Zaitseve settlements;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of Avdiivka, Kamianka, Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, Paraskoviivka, Pisky and Novomykhailivka settlements;
  • the enemy did not carry out offensive actions in the Novopavlivskyi and Zaporizhzhya directions. The infrastructure of more than twenty settlements was damaged by enemy shelling. In particular, Novoukrainka, Vremivka, Poltavka and Novopolya.
  • in the Southern Buh region, more than thirty settlements near the contact line were damaged by fire. Among them are Pravdyne, Myrne, Kiselyvka, Kobzartsi and Velike Artakove.

EASTERN UKRAINE

Above:  Ukrainian soldiers examine remains of a bridge in Izuym.  (AP)

Map via ISW

Kharkiv direction:

• Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk on October 6.
• Geolocated footage also shows Ukrainian troops in Hlushkivka, 14km southeast of Kupyansk, indicating that Ukrainian troops are continuing to make eastward gains around Kupyansk.
• Ukrainian troops likely continued counteroffensive operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6.
• Luhansk People’s Republic Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that over 10,000 Ukrainian troops have amassed west of Kreminna, and that Russian forces have largely lost contact with Svatove and Kreminna.

Map via ISW

Donetsk direction:

• Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut.
• The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces took full control of Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), but some milbloggers said that claims of the capture of Zaitseve are premature and that Wagner Group forces are continuing attempts to take full control of Zaitseve.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces fought along the western outskirts of the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area and conducted ground assaults near Krasnohorivka and Vodyane and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka.

SOUTHERN

Above: Heroes with a purpose.  (Guardian)

Above:  Map via ISW

• Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson.
• Satellite imagery dated October 3 and 4 shows Russian trench lines and radar deflector systems in the Beryslav-Nova Kakovkha area, which suggests that Russian troops are falling back to reinforce defensive positions in central Kherson Oblast in the face of recent Ukrainian advances in northeast Kherson Oblast.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that a reinforced Russian tactical unit of an unspecified echelon attempted to attack in the direction of Lyubomirivka (27km northwest of Kherson City), likely in an attempt to push the frontline further north of Kherson City to afford Russian troops a wider buffer zone between Ukrainian positions and critical concentration areas near the Dnipro River on October 5.
• Social media footage shows the aftermath of a HIMARS strike on a building used by Russian forces in Kherson City on the night of October 5 to 6. Ukrainian forces also reportedly conducted strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge.
• Ukrainian sources also reported that Ukrainian forces shot down Russian Shahed-136 drones and other unspecified loitering munitions in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts.
• Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces struck and destroyed Russian ammunition depots in Melitopol on October 6.