Victory Chronicles
-DAY 224

October 5,2022

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS

Above: “Russian troops are being trained as cannon fodder.” (Foreign Policy)

Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of partial mobilization is having more significant short-term impacts on the Russian domestic context than on the war in Ukraine, catalyzing fractures in the information space that confuse and undermine Putin’s narratives.
The Kremlin effectively ordered local Russian administrations and non-Ministry of Defense institutions to fund a significant part of the mobilization effort from local budgets.
Russian security officials are attempting to maintain their domestic security apparatus as Putin’s partial mobilization drains the Russian security sector to generate additional forces to fight in Ukraine.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Russian equipment graveyard near Sviatohirsk. (New York Times)

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Liquidated personnel, 61,000 (+200)
Tanks, 2,435 (+11)
Armored personnel vehicles, 5,038 (+20)
Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,414/341 (+7/1)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 177 (0)
Aircraft/helicopters, 266/232 (+0/4)
UAV operational-tactical level, 1,032 (+4)
Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
Warships/boats 15 (0)
Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,841 (+18)
Special equipment 132 (+1)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Municipal employee removes remnants of missile fired on civilians in Kramatorsk on Tuesday. (New York Times)

Russian forces continued to conduct artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyiapole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 4.[41] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, during the past day, the occupiers launched 9 missile and 6 air strikes, carried out more than 56 MLRS attacks.
Objects and civilian population of more than 27 settlements were damaged by enemy strikes. In particular, Kharkiv, Shypuvate, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Mayorsk, Hulyaipole, Zaliznychne, Andriyivka, Bilohirka, Voznesensk, Prydniprovske.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
The enemy fired in other directions:
- in the Siversky direction – from barrel artillery, in the areas of Pysarivka and Holyshivske settlements of the Sumy oblast;
- in the Slobozhansk direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Hraniv, Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, Vovchansk and Bilyi Kolodyaz;
- in the Kramatorsk direction – from mortars, barrel and jet artillery, in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Serebryanka and Spirne.
- In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy shelled the areas of Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Zaytseve, Opytne, Yakovlivka and Yuryivka.
- In the Avdiyivka, Novopavlivsk, and Zaporizhzhya directions, the infrastructure of more than 24 settlements was damaged by enemy shelling from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, including: Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Maryinka, Novopil, Olhivske, Pervomaiske.
- In the South Buh region, the areas of Vyshchetarasivka, Dobra Nadiya, Illinka, Marhanets, Chervonohryhorivka, Nikopol, Pokrovske, Velyke Artakove, Andriyivka, Stepova Dolyna, Bezymenne, Myrne, Luch, Shyroke, Bilohirka and Lozove.

KHARKIV

Above: Ukrainian forces patrol in the recently liberated Oskil village in Kharkiv Oblast. (New York Times)

Map via ISW

Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast west of Svatove on October 4, pushing past the Oskil River and increasingly threatening Russian positions in Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast west of Svatove on October 4. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops in Bohuslavka and Borivska Andriivka, both within 30km west of Svatove and near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border. Bohuslavka and Borivska Andriivka are on the left bank of the Oskil River.
These gains, along with other Ukrainian advances on the east bank of the river, have essentially deprived Russian forces of the ability to use the river as a defensive line.
A Russian milblogger described this inflection by noting that what used to be the Kharkiv front (the front bounded by the line of the Oskil River) has now become the Luhansk front as Ukrainian troops are threatening Russian positions within Luhansk Oblast itself.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Time to reflect in the recently liberated town of Lyman. (EuroNews)

Map via ISW

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks southeast of Siversk near Vyimka and Spirne; on and south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk, Ozeryanivka, Zaitseve, and Bakhmutske; north and west of Avdiivka near Vesele, Kamianka, and Pervomaiske; and near Novomykhailivka in western Donetsk Oblast..
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces and Wagner Group fighters fought in eastern Bakhmut and south of Bakhmut in Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are fighting in the Avdiivka area near Pervomaiske and Nevelske to expand Russian control over the Donetsk City Airport.
Over the past 24 hours, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Zelene, Mayorsk, Spirne, Zaytseve, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Kurdyumivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vuhledar.
russian occupation authorities are trying to compensate for the loss of personnel at the expense of conscription of the local population. Thus, men from Luhansk, without conducting a medical commission and training, after mobilization are immediately sent to replenish the units that suffered the greatest losses.

SOUTHERN

Above: Ukraine is advancing and liberating territory that has been held since the beginning of the war, recently foolishly annexed by the aggressor. (Hindustan Times)

Map via ISW

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains in northern Kherson Oblast on October 4, beginning to collapse the sparsely-manned Russian lines in that area.
Russian milbloggers provided insight into the sparse allocation of Russian forces that are collapsing under Ukrainian advances in northern Kherson Oblast. A Russian source claimed on October 4 that elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet have operated in the area without rotation since March and that the frontline is stretched so thin that some villages in this sector have 15 men defending them.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops in Velyka Oleksandrivka, Novopetrivka, and Starosillya, all in northwestern Kherson Oblast within 20km south of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
Russian sources acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have also captured at least half of Dudchany, a critical settlement in northeastern Kherson Oblast that lies along the T0403 highway, which runs along the west bank of the Dnipro River into the Beryslav-Nova Kahkovka area.
Several Russian sources indicated that Russian troops are withdrawing south toward Beryslav and regrouping in the area of Mylove (15km southwest of Dudchany) and that the northeastern sector of the Russian line in Kherson Oblast is collapsing along the Kakovkha reservoir.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops once again struck the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson City.
During the enemy’s abandonment of settlements in the Kherson region, the enemy mines infrastructure facilities and private residences, prohibits any movement of local residents.
In the evening of October 3, 202, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the enemy’s pontoon and ferry crossings across the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.