Victory Chronicles
-DAY 223

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: FRANTIC KREMLIN BLAME-SHIFTING FOR MOBILIZATION AND BATTLEFIELD FAILURES

Above: Ukrainian intelligence says that the Kremlin is preparing for increasing distrust and dissatisfaction among Russians by training new units of riot police.  Photo via New York Times

• Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the appointment of Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov to the command of the Western Military District to redirect blame for recent or future Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.
• The Russian State Duma approved the Kremlin’s illegal accession treaties on October 3 and laid out the administrative timeline for integrating illegally annexed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is introducing punitive measures against Russian bureaucratic institutions responsible for the improper execution of partial mobilization, likely in an effort to appear to be addressing mobilization problems and to punish enlistment officials who have not met his mobilization quotas.
• The Russian mobilization system is suffering from severe bureaucratic challenges and limitations that could undermine Putin’s efforts to generate the number of troops he needs to continue fighting in Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate cited one Russian military commissar’s complaints about the challenges he and his colleagues are encountering in trying to administer draft notices to men who are hiding in their apartments. The commissar noted that he could only deliver 16 of the required 170 mobilization notices on September 28.
• The Kremlin’s failures to follow its legal guidelines for partial mobilization, combined with its systematic failures to keep other promises, will likely continue to generate resentment and alienation among Russians.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Destroyed enemy armored personnel carrier and a cache of anti-tank mines near Izyum. Reuters

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 60,800 (+370)
• Tanks, 2,424 (+44)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 5,018 (+27)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,407/340 (+2/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 177 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 266/228 (+1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,028 (+2)
• Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
• Warships/boats 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,823 (+12)
• Special equipment, 131 (0)

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: The enemy will try to destroy as much power and heating infrastructure as possible to freeze out civilians.  MIT Technology Review

• Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Mykolaiv City, Ochakiv, Zaporizhia City, and Nikopol on October 2 and 3. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces also struck Dnipro City and critical energy infrastructure in the vicinity of Kryvyi Rih on October 3 and struck Odesa City on October 2.
• During the current day, the russian occupiers carried out four missile and three air strikes, carried out more than fifteen MLRS attacks on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine.
• More than fifteen settlements were affected by enemy strikes. Among them are Ridkodub, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhya, Zaliznychne and Mykolayiv.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery:
  • in the Siversky direction – in the areas of Hrynivka and Buchka settlements of Chernihiv oblast and Seredyna Buda, Muraveynya, Fotovyzh of Sumy region;
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – in the areas of the settlements of Vovchansk and Gatishche;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Rozdolivka, Vesele, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Klishchiyivka, Odradivka, Zaitseve, Mayorsk, New York and Yuryivka;
  • in the Avdiyivka direction – in the areas of Avdiyivka, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka.
• The enemy did not conduct active offensive actions in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. It carried out shelling in the areas of settlements of Novopil, Novosilka, Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Novoukrainka, Zaliznychne, and Hulyaipole.
• More than 40 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire in the Southern Buh direction. For conducting reconnaissance and aiming artillery, the enemy made more than seventy UAV flies.

KHARKIV

Above:  Along the Oskil River.  New York Times

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces continued to make gains in eastern Kharkiv Oblast in the direction of the Luhansk Oblast border on October 2 and 3.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Sviatohirsk in northern Donetsk, location of the 16th century Sviatohirsk Monastery.  New York Times

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border.
• Ukrainian troops continued to consolidate gains around Lyman on October 2 and 3 and likely made gains in the direction of the Luhansk Oblast border.
• Luhansk People’s Republic militia representative Andrei Marochko confirmed that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Luhansk Oblast border in an unspecified area on October 3 and gained a foothold somewhere in the direction of Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 2 and 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 2 and 3 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults on Bakhmut, to the northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (10km northeast of Bakhmut), and south of Bakhmut near Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), Odradivka (9km south of Bakhmut), Mayorsk (20km south of Bakhmut), and Vesela Dolyna (6km southeast of Bakhmut).
• Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops have been withdrawing from their positions near Bakhmut and that Wagner Group fighters have entrenched themselves on the outskirts of the city, although ISW cannot confirm claims of Ukrainian withdrawal.

SOUTHERN

Above: Ukrainian forces moving down the Dnipro River towards Kakhovka Dam from the northeast, pushing on enemy forces in Kherson from the northwest.  Financial Times

Map via ISW

• Russian officials released Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant director Ihor Murashov from detention and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.
• Ukrainian forces continued to advance in northwestern and northeastern Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russians first retreated to defensive positions in Mykhailivka (about 8km south of Zolota Balka) on October 1 but likely fell further back to Dudchany (about 24km south of Zolota Balka) on October 2.
• Ukrainian forces continued to advance south in the direction of Nova Kakhovka, and geolocated footage showed that they liberated Mykhailivka, Havrylivka, and Novooleksandrivka along the T0403.
• Ukrainian successes in Kherson Oblast are triggering the already vulnerable Russian information space. Russian occupation officials are increasingly blaming NATO intelligence for exposing weaknesses in Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast and are calling for Russian forces to prepare for urban battles and develop new defensive positions.
• Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian positions and settlements in southern Ukraine on October 2.