Victory Chronicles
-DAY 219

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RU PUBLIC SUPPORTS WAR

Above:  Bloomberg

• The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization.
• Belarus may be preparing to accommodate newly-mobilized Russian servicemen but remains unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.
• An independent Russian polling organization, the Levada Center, found that almost half of polled Russians are anxious about mobilization, but that support for Russian military actions declined only slightly to 44%.
• Ukrainian officials reiterated their concerns that the Kremlin will mobilize Ukrainian citizens in occupied oblasts following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation announcement.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: India Today

• Liquidated personnel, 59,080 (+500)
• Tanks, 2,338 (+13)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 4,932 (+23)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,391/333 (+6/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 176 (+1)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 264/225 (+2/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 1,003 (+8)
• Cruise missiles, 246 (0)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,768 (+17)
• Special equipment, 131 (0)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Daily Video Briefing – Day 218:

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Kupyansk residents continue life against a backdrop of enemy shelling. CBC

• During the current day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 4 air strikes, carried out more than 28 MLRS attacks.
• More than 20 settlements were affected by enemy strikes. Among them are Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, Mykolayiv, Nikopol, Pavlivka, Visokopillya, Myrne. Also, as a result of the attack on the Zelenodol TPP, more than 10 civilians were injured.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery:
  • in the Siversky direction – in the Senkivka district of the Chernihiv oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansky direction – in the areas of Veterynarne, Sosnivka, Strilecha, Krasne, Hlyboke, Kolodyazne, Dvorichna, Hrushivka, Senkove and Oskil settlements;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – in the areas of Novy Mir, Katerynivka, Nove, Novoselivka, Bohorodychne, Pryshyb, Blakytni Ozera, Shchurove, Donetske, Stariy Karavan, Dibrova, Rayihorodok, Ozerne, Zakitne, and Verkhnyokamianske settlements;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Rozdolivka, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Vesela Dolyna, Odradivka, Zaitseve and Toretsk;
  • in the Avdiyivka direction – in the areas of Berdychi, Avdiyivka, Pervomaiske, Opytne, Pisky and Maryinka settlements;
  • in the Novopavlovsk direction – Vremivka, Velyka Novosilka, Novopil, Neskuchne and Novoukrayinka;
  • in the Zaporizhzhiya direction – Temyrivka, Yablukove, Uspenivka, Poltavka, Zaliznychne, Hulyaipole, Charivne, Dorozhnyanka, Kamianske, Mala Tokmachka, Bilohirya, Chervone.
• Areas of more than 35 settlements along the contact line were shelled by tanks, mortars and barrel artillery in the South Buh direction. In particular, Nikopol, Visokopillya, Arkhanhelske, Osokorivka, Ternivka, Bilohirka, Suhy Stavok, Blahodatne, Olhyne, Lymany, Pravdyne and Myrne.

KHARKIV

Above:  BBC

• Russian sources also continued to discuss Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Oskil River in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 29.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops attempted to break through Russian defenses near the Kharkiv-Luhansk border in an unspecified location.
• Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff’s Main Operational Department, Oleksiy Hromov, stated on September 29 that the Russian 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army suffered considerable losses over the past few weeks while operating in Kupyansk, which lies near the Oskil River by the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border.
• As ISW previously reported, the 4th Tank Division lost nearly an entire regiment worth of advanced T-80 tanks during earlier stages of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast, which suggests that whatever remnants of the 4th Tank Division that are currently operating around near Kupyansk are severely understrength.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Good day, we’re from Ukraine. Russia faces imminent defeat in Lyman. Newsweek

Map via ISW

• Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have likely completed the envelopment of the Russian grouping in the Lyman area as of the end of the day on September 29. A prominent Russian military correspondent reported that Ukrainian forces broke through Russian defenses around Stavky, 10km north of Lyman, and cut the Torske-Drobysheve road that is the last supply and egress route for Russian elements holding the line west of Lyman.
• The correspondent called the situation “extremely difficult” for elements of the BARS-13 detachment and the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which are reportedly defending around Drobysheve and into Lyman.
• Several milbloggers stated that the fall of Lyman to Ukrainian troops is imminent without the immediate reinforcement of Russian forces.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported earlier in the day on September 29 that seven tank units formed by newly mobilized and low-skilled personnel deployed to the Lyman area without proper fire training for tank weapons and got into a road accident.
• It is highly unlikely that any deployment of additional, newly mobilized, forces to Lyman will afford the existing Russian grouping significant defensive capabilities and prevent Ukrainian troops from collapsing the Lyman pocket.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled ground assaults northeast of Bakhmut
• Ukrainian sources reported on September 29 that Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes throughout the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast.
• The leadership of the russian occupation forces continues to use all available means to restore the combat capability of units that have suffered losses in battles on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region, the so-called “local authorities” are conscripting and training 250 more prisoners. In the coming days, they will be sent to supplement the units that are in advanced positions.
• More than 200 wounded invaders have been delivered to medical facilities in the city of Starobilsk, Luhansk oblast, in recent days.

SOUTHERN

Above:  The good guys in southern Ukraine. KFGO

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Russian forces are deploying newly-mobilized troops to reinforce the Kherson Oblast frontline.
• Ukrainian troops continued to target Russian logistics, transportation, and military assets in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces have likely increased the use of Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in southern Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia deployed 2,000 mobilized men from Crimea to Kherson Oblast on September 27, many of whom are newly-mobilized members of the historically marginalized Crimean Tatar community and are likely undertrained and unmotivated to fight on the side of Russian troops.
• It was confirmed that the enemy’s concentration of manpower and military equipment in the Nova Kuban area of the Kherson region was damaged, which also led to the detonation of ammunition.
• According to detailed information, as a result of fire damage by the occupiers in the Sofiyivka district of Berdyansky district of the Zaporizhzhya oblast, the enemy lost more than 40 people wounded and about 15 killed.