Victory Chronicles
-DAY 218

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: RUSSIA PROPAGANDA MACHINE BROKEN

Above: Sevastopol men forced into kremlin service.  NEXTA

• Russian military leadership has likely failed to set information conditions for the potential defeat of the Russian grouping in Lyman, despite increasingly concerned discourse among Russian milbloggers regarding the potential for a Ukrainian envelopment of Lyman.
• The Kremlin could temporarily postpone announcing the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for some kind of annexation announcement.
• Russian authorities continue to send newly-mobilized and undertrained recruits to directly reinforce severely degraded remnants of various units, including units that were previously considered to be Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
• Russian military recruitment officials are openly contradicting the Kremlin’s publicly-stated guidelines for mobilization to meet quota requirements even as Kremlin propaganda is attempting to change the public perception of partial mobilization.
• Russian authorities are beginning to restrict movement of Russian citizens into Russian border regions to cope with hundreds of thousands of Russian men attempting to flee the country.

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above:  Ukraine’s 25th Airborne Brigade is taking out enemy tanks invading ancient Ukrainian lands. Rob Lee

• Liquidated personnel, 58,580 (+430)
• Tanks, 2,325 (+13)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 4,909 (+20)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,385/331 (+4/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 175 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 262/224 (0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 995 (+6)
• Cruise missiles, 246 (+4)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,751 (+9)
• Special equipment, 131 (0)

Source: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

Ukrainian soldier blasts national anthem on the battlefield

Ukrainian soldier plays Ukrainian national anthem on the loudspeaker in the front-line. Maybe Russian invaders can understand #Ukraine for Ukrainians.🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Mh1yBV4yEM

— UKRAINIAN SQUAD🇺🇦 (@ukrainiansquad) September 28, 2022

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Many civilians remain in temporarily ru-occupied Lyman as Ukrainian forces approach the southern outskirts and set up an encirclement from the north and east.  Le Monde

• The enemy is striking the civilian infrastructure and the homes of the civilian population. There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
• Over the past day, the enemy has launched 10 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 105 MLRS attacks. russian occupiers also attack civilian objects, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of warfare.
• More than 40 settlements were affected by enemy fire. In particular, Kharkiv, Slovyiansk, Kramatorsk, Mykolayiv, Avdiyivka and Maryinka.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• In other directions, the enemy shelled populated areas with tanks, mortars and artillery of various types:
  • in the Slobozhanskyi direction – in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Sosnivka, Krasne and Hrushivka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Ridkodub, Katerynivka and Stary Karavan;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Spirne, Siversk, Serebryanka, New York, Bakhmutske, Vesela Dolyna, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka and Rozdolivka;
  • in the Avdiyivka direction – Avdiyivka, Berdychi, Opytne, Vodyane, Tonenke, Krasnohorivka, Karlivka, Maryinka and Paraskoviyvka.
• More than 25 settlements were shelled by tanks, mortars, and barrel artillery in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. Among them are Mykilske, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Neskuchne, Novomykolaivka, Vremivka, Temyrivka and Olhivske.
• More than 30 settlements along the contact line were damaged by fire in the South Buh direction. For the purpose of conducting reconnaissance, adjusting fire and launching strikes against civilian infrastructure objects, the enemy made more than 25 flies of UAVs.

KHARKIV

Above:  Even though Ukraine has chased orcs out of most of Kharkiv oblast, the enemy can still send missiles into Kharkiv city, targeting civilian power supply.  Ukrainska Pravda

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian troops also continued offensive operations around Kupyansk on September 28. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops raising Ukrainian flags over Kivsharivka, about 10km southeast of Kupyansk.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops took control of the Kupyansk-Uzlovaya station, 8km southeast of Kupyansk on the outskirts of Kivsharivka.
• Russian sources suggested that Ukrainian troops are attempting advances to the northeast of Kupyansk along the Pervshyi Lyman-Tavilzhanka line.
• A prominent Russian military correspondent claimed that all Russian units entirely withdrew from Kupyansk on September 28, although it is unclear where those units are redeploying to.

Good afternoon, we’re from Ukraine.  Ukrainian Squad

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Ukrainian defender crosses a destroyed main bridge in Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukraine.  New York Times

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces likely continued to make significant gains around Lyman on September 28, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna-Kolodiazi arc and from the southeast around Yampil.
• The enemy is shelling the positions of Ukrainian troops along the contact line, continues to focus its efforts on attempts to fully occupy the Donetsk oblast and hold the captured territories, as well as disrupting the active actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions. In addition, it tries to restore lost positions in certain directions and conducts aerial reconnaissance.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks south of Bakhmut near Zaitseve, Mayorsk, Mykolaivka Druha, Odradivka, and Zalizne (all within 15km of Bakhmut), and west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.
• Several Russian milbloggers voiced escalated concern that Ukrainian forces are seeking to take control of the Svatove-Lyman road that is currently a critical ground line of communication for the Russian grouping in Lyman.

Lyman timeline of counter-offensive over last week. War Mapper

A timelapse of the Ukrainian advances around Lyman over the last week. pic.twitter.com/WMyXhSlpHO

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) September 28, 2022

SOUTHERN

Above:  Ukrainian forces continue to effectively prevent enemy resupply to the right bank (northwest) of the Dnipro River by destroying transportation routes, bridges and convoys.  Ukrainska Pravda

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials largely maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian actions in Kherson Oblast on September 28 but stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing positional battles in unspecified locations to consolidate and improve their positions along the Southern Axis.
• Ukrainian military officials also reiterated that Ukrainian troops are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets, as well as concentration areas, in Kherson Oblast.
• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces are pulling reserves from the Crimean direction to reinforce the current southern frontline against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• Geolocated footage shows the aftermath of a reported Ukrainian HIMARS strike on Oleshky, 8km southeast of Kherson City.  Russian sources also posted imagery of the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on Kherson Polytechnical College in Kherson City, where Russian troops reportedly were residing.

Ukrainian Su-24 fighter jets hit enemy positions outside of Davydiv Brid, Kherson. OSINTtechnical

A pair of Ukrainian Su-24s hit a Russian armored position outside of Davydiv Brid, Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/EII3wDvBES

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 29, 2022