Victory Chronicles
-DAY 217

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: FAKE REFERENDA COMPLETED

Above: The enemy launched ten Iranian-made kamikaze drones at Uman in central Ukraine, as Jewish pilgrims gathered to observe Rosh Hashanah.  Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed them in the air.  Operator Starsky

“According to the Kremlin, the survivors of this massacre just voted overwhelmingly to join the perpetrators.” Business Ukraine

• Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval from Ukrainian residents.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30.

• Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”

• Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.

• Russian authorities are establishing checkpoints at Russia’s borders to forcibly mobilize Russian men who are seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country.

• Russian officials are setting conditions to forcibly mobilize or conscript Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine.

US condemns fake referenda before UN Security Council

The United States will introduce a resolution at the United Nations Security Council condemning what it called sham referendums held by Russia in occupied regions of Ukraine, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said https://t.co/qJw868DNpW pic.twitter.com/2vVLoq5wuK

— Reuters (@Reuters) September 28, 2022

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: Another enemy tank bites the dust.  Ukraine Weapons Tracker

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua

• Liquidated personnel, 58,150 (+400)
• Tanks, 2,312 (+6)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 4,889 (+8)
• Artillery systems/MLRS, 1,381/331 (+3/0)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 175 (0)
• Aircraft/helicopters, 262/224 (+1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 989 (+12)
• Cruise missiles, 242 (+1)
• Warships/boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,742 (+12)
• Special equipment, 131 (0)

Glory to Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces – not military, but civilian volunteers!

126th TDF brigade: training diary pic.twitter.com/VfHzzqyUaF

— Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces (@TDF_UA) September 28, 2022

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Poland Postsen

• There remains the threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, over the past day, the enemy launched 9 missile and 22 air strikes, carried out more than 90 MLRS attacks. During the past day, the enemy used attack UAVs in the area of Bilenke settlement of Odesa oblast.

• More than 50 settlements were affected by the fire. Among them are Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Soledar, Avdiyivka, Novopil, Zaporizhzhya, Marhanets, Musiivka, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Potyomkine, Osokorivka, Mykolayiv, Ochakiv and Bilenke.

• The situation has not changed significantly in the Volyn, Polissya and Siverskyi directions.

• In other directions, the enemy continued shelling from tanks, mortars and artillery, namely:
• • in the Slobozhansky direction – in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Udy, Hatyshche, Vovchansk, Dvorichne, Kucherivka, Petropavlivka and Senkove;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Stary Karavan, Ozerne, Siversk, Spirne, Rozdolivka and Vesele;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Soledar, Bakhmutske, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, Mayorsk and Yuryivka;
  • in the Avdiyivka direvtion – Avdiyivka, Vodyane, Opytne, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka;
  • in the Novopavlivsk direction – Zolota Nyva, Vuhledar, Pavlivka and Yehorivka;
  • in the Zaporizhzhya direction – Novopil, Novosilka and Vremivka.
• More than 25 settlements near the contact line were hit by artillery and mortar shelling in the South Buh direction. In particular, Chervona Dolyna, Shyroke, Andriyivka, Bilohirka, Ternovi Pody, Lymany and Myrne.

KHARKIV

Above:  Enemy soldiers receiving rebranded “z” trucks – 1960s era soviet vehicles manufactured in Kremenchuk, Poltava, Ukraine. Territorial Defense Forces

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces conducted operations to consolidate their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River north of Kupyansk on September 27.

• Ukrainian officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (just east of Kupyansk), which reportedly serves as one of the largest railway nodes in Kharkiv Oblast.

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also continued to advance in the direction of Tavilizhanka (approximately 18km northeast of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on the Oskil River’s eastern bank) and have secured positions northwest of the settlement

LUHANSK AND DONETSK

Above: Territorial defense forces evacuate civilians around Lyman.  New York Times

Map via ISW

• Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, and Mayorsk.

• Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of Lyman.

• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.

• The New York Times cited reports by Ukrainian military personnel that Wagner Group forces in the Bakhmut area are deploying men from penal colonies as cannon fodder who often surrender to Ukrainian forces on contact, confirming previous reports of Wagner Group employing poorly trained prisoners.

• Ukrainian forces continued to advance northwest of Lyman on September 26 and September 27. Local officials stated they could freely travel between Lozove and Rubtsi, which further indicates that Ukrainian forces have secured some positions northwest of Lyman.

• Russian sources are reporting that Ukrainian artillery fire is successfully interdicting Russian forces’ last logistic route to Lyman, running through Svatove-Makiivka-Terny north of the settlement.

• The Russian annexation of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will likely exacerbate tensions within DNR and LNR forces, who regularly mutiny when asked to fight outside the borders of their own oblasts.

SOUTHERN

Above:  The enemy tries to use ferries to supply Kherson occupation as Ukrainian forces repeatedly strike bridges across the Dnipro and other critical supply rivers. DW

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence on September 27 and stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaign in southern Ukraine.

• Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces are continuing to regroup units in the area and have closed entry and exit to Kherson Oblast, possibly to prevent men of fighting age from fleeing to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication, particularly disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings.Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces struck Russian barges operating over the Dnipro River and continued to target Russian efforts to repair the Kakhovka Bridge.

• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that a Russian cruise missile inflicted heavy damage on airport infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih on September 26, rendering the airfield inoperable.

• Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian forces and cities in Southern Ukraine on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces carried out more than 50 unmanned aerial vehicle sorties on September 27 throughout southern Ukraine and that many of those sorties used Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.

• The situation at Zaporizhzhya NPP remains tense. Station employees do not want to cooperate with the enemy and try to leave the territories temporarily occupied by the occupiers. The occupied part of the Kherson oblast is completely closed for entry and exit.