Victory Chronicles
-DAY 216

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: PROPAGANDA MACHINE STRUGGLING TO CONTROL MOBILIZATION OUTRAGE

Above: Confirmed protests against mobilization as reported by ISW

• The Kremlin faces a daunting task in trying to calm the Russian people while still mobilizing enough men to keep fighting.
• The Kremlin’s efforts to calm the Russian population are struggling so far, as protests occurred in at least 35 settlements on September 25 and at least 10 settlements on September 26.
• The Kremlin is conscripting outside of the declared parameters, exacerbating social discontent.
• The Kremlin’s planned annexation of occupied Ukraine may take place before or shortly after October 1, the start of Russia’s normal fall conscription cycle, to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine. 
• The Kremlin may be considering formally closing its borders or more formally restricting the movement of fighting-age men within the country to better implement partial mobilization.
• Russian occupation authorities began to announce that the results of their sham annexation referenda, citing flagrantly falsified turnout numbers.

GENERAL STAFF ON RU MOBILIZATION

Above: In Dagestan, in the village of Endirey, Khasavyurt district, local residents took to the streets to spontaneously protest against the mobilization of the Russian army. EPrimeFeed

• On the territory of the Russian Federation, measures of partial mobilization, announced by the Russian military and political leadership, are ongoing. Rostov region is closed for entry and exit. Persons who are not at the place of registration, through relatives, are ordered to appear within three days. Personnel arriving at assembly points in the Belgorod region are given a list of what they need to purchase at their own expense, in particular, warm clothing.

• The enemy is also carrying out the mentioned measures in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. From September 24 of this year, in Sevastopol, at the base of the automobile battalion of the Black Sea Fleet, the training of the demobilized began.

• In the city of Svatove, Luhansk region, summonses for mobilization are handed out to persons who have reached the age of eighteen. Individual citizens, truck drivers, are immediately sent to military units.

• At the same time, the enemy is trying to implement the declared illegal “referendum” in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, in populated areas of the Zaporizhzhia region, representatives of the occupation authorities, together with armed Russian military, conduct house-to-house rounds, forcing local residents to participate in the so-called “referendum”. In addition, such rounds are also aimed at identifying men. The enemy carries out the same measures in the populated areas of the Luhansk region.

MASSIVE SOUTHBOUND TRAFFIC JAM INTO GEORGIA 

Drone footage shows a massive line of traffic at the border between Russia and Georgia as huge numbers of Russians seek to flee the country amid fears they will be drafted to fight in the war in Ukraine. https://t.co/JIZ8uyYWEh pic.twitter.com/HNM6qZ3MBM

— ABC News (@ABC) September 27, 2022

GENERAL STAFF DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

Above: “If you are chilly this September evening, think about the russian occupiers who are being warmed by Ukrainian artillery.” Defense of Ukraine

• Liquidated personnel 57,750 (+550)
• Tanks 2,306 (+16)
• Armored personnel vehicles 4,881 (+24)
• Artillery systems/ MLRS 1,378/331 (+9/1)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems 175 (+3)
• Aircraft/ helicopters 261/224 (+1/0)
• UAV operational-tactical level 977 (+7)
• Cruise missiles 241 (0)
• Warships/ boats 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks 3,730 (+19)
• Special equipment 131 (0)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Daily Video Briefing – Day 215:

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: “Kharkiv. Saltivka. A large and peaceful residential area. It was like that until russia came…Each missile brings russia closer to greater international isolation, greater economic degradation, and even clearer historical condemnation.” Defense of Ukraine

• There is a threat of air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine. For example, over the past day, the enemy launched 5 missile and 12 air strikes, carried out more than 83 attacks from multiple rocket-propelled grenades. Also, the enemy used 4 attack UAVs to attack civilian infrastructure objects.

• More than 40 settlements were affected by enemy fire. These are, in particular, Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Kamianka, Kurakhove, Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv and Odesa.

• The situation in the Volyn and Poliske directions has not changed significantly.

• In other directions, the occupiers fired from tanks, mortars, and barrel artillery:

• • in the Siverskyi direction, in the area of ​​Oleksandrivka settlement, Sumy region;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Strelecha, Odnorobivka, Veterinarne, Gatishche, Kamianka, Golubivka and Senkove;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Novoselivka, Shchurove, Siversk, Hryhorivka, Bilogorivka, Zakitne, Dibrova, Verkhnokamianske, Vesele, Rozdolivka, Ozerne and Spirne;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Zaytseve, Klishchivka, Vesela Dolyna, Yakovlivka, Mayorsk, Nelipovka, Viimka and Bilogorivka;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – Avdiivka, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka.

• 18 settlements were shelled by tanks, mortars and barrel artillery in the Novopavlovsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. Among them are Yehorivka, Pavlivka, Zaliznychne, Novoandriivka, Gulyaipilske, Gulyaipole, Uspenivka, Novosilka, Vremivka and Chervone.

• In the South Buzka direction, more than 27 settlements near the contact line were damaged by artillery and mortar shelling.

Russian troops hit city center of southern Ukrainian city of Mykolayiv with low-precision Smerch-type missiles, damaging a number of civilian objects, incl houses, shops, and the water supply network, Oblast Head informed https://t.co/LyvZkFm51e pic.twitter.com/LyhALOBs5Y

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 27, 2022

KHARKIV

Above: Recently freed Ukrainian lady hugs her liberator.  Glory to Ukraine.  New Voice of Ukraine

Map via ISW

• The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk Oblasts continued to make gains near Lyman on September 25 and September 26.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK OBLASTS

Map via ISW

• The enemy continues to focus its efforts on attempts to fully occupy the Donetsk region and hold the captured territories, as well as disrupt the active actions of the Defense Forces in certain areas.

• Fires at the positions of our troops along the contact line, tries to restore lost positions in certain directions, conducts aerial reconnaissance. Strikes civilian infrastructure and peaceful residential buildings, violating norms of International Humanitarian Law, laws and customs of war.Ukrainian forces continued to make advances north of Lyman and on the eastern bank of the Oskil River.

• Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.

• Wagner elements reportedly continued attacks north on the Bakhmut-Mayorsk highway and took up positions in southern Zaitseve (8 km southeast of Bakhmut).

UA SPEC OPS AMBUSH ENEMY VEHICLES

Video of Ukrainian SSO ambushing three Russian Tigr vehicles in Donetsk Oblast with RPG-22 and other weapons.https://t.co/y01a6xtfDg pic.twitter.com/P13UNvAP7Y

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 27, 2022

SOUTHERN

Above:  Lithuania delivers its 50th M113 armored personnel carrier to Ukraine. Visegrad 24

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence about the progress of Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive on September 25 and September 26.

• Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity: south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and east of Mykolaiv City.

• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) as part of the southern counter-offensive interdiction campaign.

• Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian forces and cities in southern Ukraine.

• Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are mining areas of potential Ukrainian advances, which indicates that Russian forces are likely prioritizing maintaining defensive positions rather than attempting to resume offensive operations in the south.