Victory Chronicles
-DAY 215

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: MOBILIZATION WILL NOT SOLVE SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS

Above: Map via ISW

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Armed Forces have not been setting conditions for an effective large-scale mobilization since at least 2008 and have not been building the kind of reserve force needed for a snap mobilization intended to produce immediate effects on the battlefield.
• The problems Putin confronts stem in part from long-standing unresolved tensions in the Russian approach to generating military manpower.
• The Russian military tried to move to an all-volunteer basis amid the 2008 financial crisis and failed to make the transition fully.
• The Russian military ended up with a hybrid model blending conscript and professional soldiers.
• Putin has already conducted at least four attempts at mobilization in the last year, likely draining the pool of available combat-ready (and willing) reservists ahead of the “partial mobilization.”

GENERAL STAFF ON RU MOBILIZATION

Above: Photo via NBC News

• In connection with the partial mobilization announced by the russian military-political leadership, the military commissariats of the russian Federation have been working around the clock since September 22. Persons who try to evade mobilization are threatened with criminal liability.
• In the city of Sevastopol of the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, about one thousand summonses were handed out to men of draft age. Representatives of the occupying forces assure the mobilized personnel that their service will take place in the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region until the end of the term of the so-called “special operation”.
• The command of the russian occupying forces directs the new arrivals for the mobilization of servicemen without training to the replenishment of units that have suffered losses, directly to the front line. This significantly affects the decrease in the level of morale and psychological state of enemy servicemen and the quality of their performance of duties.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that russian contract soldiers in Zaporizhia Oblast have been informed that the terms of their contracts are no longer relevant and that they will have to continue to serve at the discretion of the military command.
• The General Staff also claimed that russian authorities are telling men mobilized in Sevastopol that they will serve for the duration of the ”special military operation,” and that the Russian military is sending mobilized men directly to combat units without additional training

Дагестанские женщины в Махачкале отчаянно протестуют против войны и мобилизации: "Почему вы забираете наших детей? Куда напали?! На кого напали?! На Россию?! Они не пришли к нам. Это мы напали на Украину. Это Россия напала на Украину! Нет войне!" pic.twitter.com/aeUargbiiO

— Рустем Адагамов (@adagamov) September 25, 2022

GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

• Liquidated personnel, 57200 (+500)
• Tanks, 2290 (+15)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 4857 (+25)
• Artillery systems/ MLRS, 1369/330 (+1/2)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 172 (+1)
• Aircraft/ helicopters, 260/224 (+1/4)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 970 (+4)
• Cruise missiles, 241 (0)
• Warships/ boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3711 (+10)
• Special equipment, 131 (+1)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Daily Video Briefing – Day 214:

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: Photo via Tribune India

• The enemy continues to cynically attack civilian infrastructure and civilian homes. There remains the threat of the enemy launching air and missile strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine.
• Over the course of a day, the occupiers launched 4 missile and 7 air strikes, fired more than 24 MLRS rstrikes at military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine, violating the norms of international humanitarian law, the laws and customs of warfare.
• More than 35 settlements were affected by enemy fire. Among them are Kupyansk, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, New York, Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Novomykhailivka, Pavlivka, Zaporizhzhya, Volodymyrivske, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv, Myrolyubivka, Novovoznesensk, Sukhy Stavok and Odesa.
• The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly.
• In other directions, the enemy fired from tanks, mortars and barrel artillery:
  • in the Siversky direction – in the areas of the settlements of Huta-Studenetska and Bleshnya of the Chernihiv oblast and Bachivsk, Shalyhine and Seredyna Buda of the Sumy oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Strilecha, Huryiv Kozachok, Stohniyi, Udy, Veterynarne and Kupyansk;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Slovyiansk, Koroviy Yar, Bohorodychne, Yarova, Pryshyb and Ozerne;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – Soledar, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Odradivka, Zaytseve, Opytne, Yakovlivka, New York, Mayorsk, Nelipovka, Yuryivka, Vyimka, Bilohorivka, Rozdolivka, Spirne, Vesele and Verkhnyokamianske;
  • in the Avdiyivka region – Avdiyivka, Opytne, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Maryinka and Paraskoviyivka.
• 18 settlements were shelled in the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhya directions. In particular, Mykilske, Vuhledar, Prechystivka, Zolota Nyva, Velyka Novosilka, Novomayorske, Vremivka, Pavlivka, Zaliznychne, Shevchenko, Bilohirya, Poltavka, Novosilka, Novopil, Temyrivka, Vremivka, Chervone and Olhivske.
• In the South Buh region, more than 38 settlements near the contact line were damaged by artillery and mortar shelling. In particular, Novovoznesensk, Arkhangelsk, Sukhy Stavok, Pervomaiske, Marganets and Nikopol.
• For the purpose of conducting reconnaissance, adjusting fire and launching strikes against civilian infrastructure objects, the enemy made up to 60 flies of UAVs.

KHARKIV

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian forces likely control Maliivka in Kharkiv Oblast.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK OBLASTS

Map via ISW

• The enemy continues to focus its efforts on attempts to fully occupy the Donetsk oblast and hold the captured territories, as well as disrupt the active actions of the Defense Forces in certain areas. Fires at the positions of our troops along the contact line, conducts aerial reconnaissance and tries to restore lost positions in certain directions.
• During the day, units of the Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Soledar, Vyimka, Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske and Pavlivka.
• Ukrainian forces are contesting Russian positions around Karpivka, Nove, Ridkodub, and Novoserhiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces likely liberated the town of Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast.

SOUTHERN

Map via ISW

• The skill of our artillerymen was once again confirmed. During September 24 of this year, as a result of the fire impact on enemy facilities in the temporarily captured territory of Zaporizhzhya oblast, about 10 units of enemy weapons and military equipment were destroyed in the area of the settlement of Hulyaipole, as well as one S-300 air defense system with ammunition storage near the city of Tokmak.
• Russian sources claim that Russian forces hit Ukraine’s Operational Command South headquarters in Odesa with Shahed-136 drones on September 25.[12] Ukrainian Operational Command South reported Russian Shahed-136 drone strikes in Odesa, but not that its headquarters was a target of any of them.