Victory Chronicles
-DAY 212

ISW KEY TAKEAWAYS: KREMLIN ALREADY BREAKING MOBILIZATION PROMISES

Above: Abandoned russian camps litter eastern Ukraine. Photo via Twitter

• The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.
• The Kremlin is openly not adhering to its promised conditions for partial mobilization.
• Kremlin quotas will likely force local officials to mobilize men regardless of their military status and will likely incentivize the mobilization of ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities at a disproportionate rate.
• The Kremlin likely attempted to downplay a prisoner swap with Ukraine that is deeply unpopular among Russian nationalists and milbloggers by undertaking the swap the same day Putin announced partial mobilization.
• Russian occupation forces are hurriedly setting conditions to hold sham annexation referenda across occupied Ukraine from September 23-27.
• Russian officials created polling stations in parts of Russia, ostensibly to enable displaced (in many cases meaning kidnapped) Ukrainian residents of occupied territories to “vote.”

GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES DAILY ENEMY LOSSES

• Liquidated personnel, 56,060 (+550)
• Tanks, 2254 (+18)
• Armored personnel vehicles, 4,796 (+20)
• Artillery systems/ MLRS, 1,355/326 (+14/8)
• Anti-aircraft warfare systems, 170 (+1)
• Aircraft/ helicopters, 254/219 (+1/1)
• UAV operational-tactical level, 950 (+9)
• Cruise missiles, 240 (0)
• Warships/ boats, 15 (0)
• Vehicles and fuel tanks, 3,659 (+29)
• Special equipment, 126 (+1)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Daily Video Briefing – Day 211:

CIVILIAN MISSILE STRIKES

Above: 80% of Izyum liberated is destroyed, public utility systems damaged.  Photo via CNN

• The enemy continues to attack civilian infrastructure and residential buildings, terrorizing the civilian population. The threat of air and missile strikes remains for the entire territory of Ukraine.
• Over the course of a day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 24 shelling with MLRS on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine, violating the norms of International Humanitarian Law, the laws and customs of warfare.
• The infrastructure of more than 30 settlements was affected, including Pryshyb, Spirne, Vesele, Maryinka, Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka, Neskuchne, Poltavka, Ehorivka, Bezymenne, Bilohirka, Zaporizhzhya, Kryvyi Rih, Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv, Ochakiv, Vysokopillya, Sukhyi Stavok and Mirolyubivka.
• In other directions, the enemy continues shelling from tanks, mortars and artillery:
  • in the Siversky direction – in the area of Shalyhyne, Volfyne, Yizdetske and Myropilske settlements of the Sumy oblast;
  • in the Slobozhansk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Hlyboke, Strilecha, Morokhovets, Vesele, Sotnytskyi Kozachok, Vovchansk, Hatyshche, Dvorichna, Husynka, Kamyanka, Kupyansk, Artilne, Osynove and Mikhuvatka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – Bohorodychne, Yatskivka, Yarova, Tetyanivka, Sviatohirsk, Pryshyb, Slovyansk, Platonivka, Donetske, Sydorove, Zakitne, Ozerne, Shchurov and Raihorodok;
  • in the direction of Bakhmut – Siversk, Spirne, Zvanivka, Mykolayivka, Rozdolivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Odradivka, Vesele, Bilohorivka, Rozivka, Zaitseve, Yakovlivka, Mayorsk;
  • in the Avdiyivka direction – Krasnohorivka, Avdiyivka, Kamianka, Opytne, Maryinka, Vodyane and Novomykhailivka;
  • in the Novopavlivsky and Zaporizhzhya directions, the enemy did not carry out active operations, but at the same time carried out artillery fire on the settlements of Mykilske, Vuhledar, Volodymyrivka, Prechystivka, Novoukrainka, Velyka Novosilka, Neskuchne, Vremivka, Pavlivka, Mala Tokmachka, Hulyaipilske, Zaliznychne, Poltavka, Novopil and Novosilka
  • More than 37 settlements were affected by fire in the South Buh direction.

KHARKIV

Map via ISW

• During the current day, units of the Defence Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements of Kupyansk, Zaitseve, and Novomykhailivka.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued limited counteroffensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and continued attacks toward Lyman on September 22.

LUHANSK AND DONETSK OBLASTS

Map via ISW

• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the frontlines in Donetsk Oblast on September 22.
• In the city of Starobilsk, Luhansk oblast, the occupation authorities forbade the local population to leave the city between September 23 and 27. According to available information, the occupiers are creating armed groups to go around homes and force people to participate in the so-called “referendum”. Preparations are being made for filming by propaganda media stories about such “active participation of local residents in voting”.

SOUTHERN

Map via ISW

• Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 22 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast.
• IAEA negotiations around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant are unlikely to significantly improve the situation at the plant and may provide an opportunity for Russian forces to stage provocations.
• The enemy is trying to keep the situation in the temporarily occupied territories under its control. In Kherson, the administrative and police regime is being strengthened, inspections of settlements and psychological pressure on local residents are being carried out.
• The work on the preparation and holding of the so-called “referendum” on the temporarily captured territories of Ukraine was intensified. Thus, in the settlements of the Kherson oblast, representatives of the russian occupation authorities, under the pretext of quality distribution of humanitarian aid, are trying to obtain their personal data from local residents. The formation of the so-called “election commissions” continues.
• In the temporarily captured territory of the Zaporizhzhya region, local residents are promised cash rewards and household appliances for providing passport data and obtaining citizenship of the russian federation.