Victory Chronicles
-DAY 160

WAR HIGHLIGHTS: RELATIVE QUIET IN THE EAST

Above: Russia lost thousands of troops and huge inventories of war equipment in the weeks-long battle for western Luhansk Oblast.  Photo via Breaking Defense

• The war has been in something of a lull since the culmination of the battles for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last month.  Analysts understand that russia severely depleted its highly-concentrated military resources to take a relatively small territory in western Luhansk Oblast.
• The enemy is desperate for cannon fodder, ordering far-flung regions to create and train battalions.  Data show that russia’s ethnic minorities are much more likely to be a combat casualty than russians.  It appears that the russian-grown criminal mercenary group Wagner has been tasked with spearheading a limited number of offenses in the east.
• The arrival of longer-range missile systems and Ukraine’s highly-skilled deployment dealt a hard blow to enemy supply lines and command structure in both the east and south.  Although moscow called an operational pause in its highly-flawed invasion, most analysts can’t imagine how the invader can regroup effectively in the short- to medium-term.

STORM BREWING IN THE SOUTH

Above:  orcs have increased shelling on civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv.  Here, a war crimes prosecutor examines evidence.  Photo via CNBC

• Ukraine has been taunting the enemy with promises to stage major counter offenses in southern Zaporizhzhya Oblast and Kherson Oblast.  Ukraine has been focused on cutting supply lines including bridges and rail lines that were used for transport between Kherson north of the Dnipro and territory south of the Dnipro including Crimea.
• In Kherson, local officials in exile report that the Ukrainian armed forces have de-russified over 50 settlements in Kherson Oblast’s northern side near Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Mostly peaceful villages have been “practically destroyed…still under constant shelling…the population has mostly left,” according to Kherson Deputy Governor Dmytro Butriy.
• Analysts have detected the transfer of enemy troops from the Donbas to the south including a build-up in Crimea, presumably to prevent the Ukrainian counter offensive threat.  On Monday, presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych said that the build up of enemy troops and increased advanced shelling indicates that the incompetents are preparing for assaults on Kryviy Rih and Mykovaiv.

US MILITARY AID TOPS USD 8 BILLION

Above:  HIMAR systems take a wide variety of ammo with different strengths and ranges.  Graphic via Reddit

• On Monday, the US  announced a new tranche of weapons for Ukraine, including HIMARS ammo and artillery guns that Ukrainian military officials say have been critical in the fight to repel Russian troops and strike their supply lines and command structures.
• The new $550 million package includes more ammunition for the high mobility advanced rocket systems and artillery. This brings the total of military assistance committed to Ukraine during President Biden’s term to more than $8 billion.