Victory Chronicles
-DAY 149

July 22,2022

Above: Destroyed school in Kramatorsk, Donetsk, as the enemy pulverizes the largely Russian-speaking region. Photo via BBC

In rare public statements made at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, MI6 Chief Richard Moore predicted that the aggressor will struggle to make gains. “Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks,” Mr Moore said. “They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians the opportunity to strike back.”
At the same time, the Kremlin propaganda mouthpiece and foriegn minister spoke on russian propaganda tv to expound on how the empire will take more of Ukrainian territory in order to counteract longer-range artillery, in reference to Ukraine’s game-changing deployment of only 12 HIMARS mobile missile system currently in its inventory. Military analysts do not see a conventional warfare path for the Kremlin’s new territorial goals, in light of its performance in the first five months of war.
In an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, the authors lament the West’s hesitance to send more big weapons faster. They explain Moscow’s fear of escalation propaganda campaign – that big weapons in Ukraine’s hands will lead to conflict between the Kremlin and NATO. The authors believe that threats of nuclear weapons should be met head-on by western leaders with clarity that breaking the nuclear taboo will result in ruin for Russia.

Above: HIMARS at work. Photo via Le Monde

In an analysis published on Englesberg Ideas, Australian military leader and strategic Mick Ryan explained how HIMARS are destroying enemy ammo and fuel depots as well as command centers, thereby, severely compromising the enemy’s ability to carpet bomb areas in front of its intended line of advance.
Mr Ryan writes, “The Ukrainian strategy of corrosion, newly supported by HIMARS, is how clever twenty-first century military organisations must fight if they seek to win. The Ukrainians have proved to be masters of corrosion in this war. They offer valuable lessons to the West’s military institutions for their own inevitable future struggles against authoritarian regimes.”
Last week Moscow’s military declared its primary objective to destroy Ukraine’s HIMARS. Following Ramstein-4, US General Mark Milley confirmed that the invaders are so far unsuccessful. “”To date, those systems have not been eliminated by the Russians, and I knock on wood every time I say something like that,” commented General Milley.

Above: Ukrainian soldier patrols near a burning wheat field. Photo vis RFERL

Ankara says a deal has been reached with Moscow to allow Ukraine to resume exports of grain through the Black Sea. It is to be signed on Friday in Istanbul by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The plan includes Ukrainian naval escorts for grain ships passing through mined waters; enemy ceasefire as ships move; Turkish ships inspection to prevent smuggling. The deal also facilitates aggressor export through the Black Sea.
One Ukrainian deputy with knowledge of the talks voiced the skeptism held by Ukrainians. “We don’t have an agreement yet,” Odesa lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko told BBC. “We don’t trust Russians at all. So let us wait till tomorrow for a final decision and that there will not be some push backs from Russians and last minute changes.”