Victory Chronicles
-DAY 128

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Above: Ukrainian forces repeatedly destroyed the enemy base on Snake Island but they kept sending in new cannon fodder, intelligence and weapons systems. Photo via New York Times

• Moscow’s marauders hastily withdrew from Snake Island on Thursday.  The Russian Ministry of Defense made a counterfactual “mission complete” announcement.  Analysts attribute the withdrawal to Russia’s sudden understanding of the implications of Ukraine’s growing weapons arsenal.

• Retreat of the enemy on Snake Island was termed as a strategic victory by Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksii Danilov who noted that the Snake Island enemy base had a powerful radio reconnaissance system that monitored southwestern Ukraine and Transnistria.

• The wide open plains of southern coastal Ukraine allowed the invaders to swoop in and quickly take the south as Ukrainians fought off the assault on Kyiv.  But the invaders have been able to expand southern territory since early in the war.  After failing in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Kremlin committed and expended tremendous resources taking a small part of Donbas, with little strategic benefit other than propaganda.  Instead, the tiny dictator badly needs to take and hold the south in order to provide a land connection from Russia to Crimea.

ARM UKRAINE: GOOD OLD YANKEE INNOVATION

Above:  Ukraine would not have a chance if not for the work done in the Pentagon.  Photo via Ukraine Business News

• The US Defense Department is turning to the private sector to “fulfill Ukraine’s priority security assistance requests.” The Pentagon solicited proposals for innovative new weapons and commercial capabilities for development and production to help defeat the Russians.

• The US Defense Department is now reviewing 1,300 proposals from 800 companies centered around key areas — weapons for air defense, anti-armor, anti-personnel, coastal defense, anti-tank, unmanned aerial systems, counter battery and secure communications — which have been identified by Ukraine as key military needs.

• On Thursday, US President Joe Biden said that the US is preparing another $800 million package of new Ukraine military aid including air defense systems and offensive weapons. So far, the US has committed $6.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the February 24 invasion.

NATO SUMMIT: KEY TAKE-AWAYS

Above: NATO country defense spending as % of GDP.  Chart via Mick Ryan, AM

• NATO named Russia as the most direct threat to EUro-Atlantic security.  In the longer term, NATO identified Chinese ambitions to subvert the rules-based international order in partnership with Russia.  Three more prime threats to international peace and prosperity include terrorism, cyberwars and climate change.

• While NATO’s long-term strategy looks good for Ukraine, Ukraine’s short-term fate depends upon NATO member countries increasing their own defense spending immediately.  Germany, Spain, Italy and Canada are examples of countries that significantly underspend on defense.