Victory Chronicles-DAY 1071

More than 20 Russian oil and gas facilities have been struck by cross-border Ukrainian drone strikes this month in an attempt to hurt Russia’s main cash cow of revenues for its war chest. 

They aim to not only deprive fuel for military aircraft and armored vehicles, but also harm its export capacity to other countries and for domestic consumption.

This month was “when the gloves finally came off,” said the Kyiv Insider. 

Most recently, Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s 4 largest oil refineries located in the Nizhny-Novgorod region for the second time in two years. 

Other news sources stated that 84 similar sites that included energy facilities and defense manufacturing plants were struck in 2024 to diminish Moscow’s fighting capacity. 

EXCERPT: 

▪️ On January 4, drones covered a distance of over 900 kilometers, successfully striking Russia’s largest seaport, Ust-Luga, in the Leningrad region.

▪️ On January 8, drones traveled approximately 1,000 kilometers to hit an oil depot in Engels, a key fuel supplier for a military airfield.

▪️ On January 10, several areas of Russia’s Rostov region fell victim to a combination of missiles and drones targeting a plant for the production of propellant for ballistic missiles as well as weapons warehouses and a military training base.

▪️ On January 11, multiple locations, including Russian-occupied Crimea and several Russian cities, came under attack. A fire erupted in the port area of Novorossiysk, located 500 kilometers from the border.

▪️ On January 14, drones struck an oil depot in Engels, the Orgsintez plant in Kazan, the Saratov Oil Refinery, and the Bryansk Chemical Plant.

▪️ On January 15, an oil depot in the Voronezh region, about 200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, caught fire.

▪️ On January 16, drones traveled more than 400 kilometers to reach the Tambov Gunpowder Plant.

▪️ On January 17, another drone strike targeted the Engels oil depot, where Russian authorities had just extinguished a six-day fire. This marked the third attack in two weeks.

▪️ On January 18, drones hit oil depots in Russia’s Tula and Kaluga regions.

▪️ On January 20, drones targeted aircraft manufacturing facilities in Kazan, 1,000 kilometers from the border, while also revisiting a familiar oil depot in the Voronezh region.

▪️ On January 21, drone strikes reached military-industrial sites in Smolensk, located 300 kilometers from the border.

▪️ On January 24, drones conducted successful strikes in Ryazan and Bryansk—over 500 and 110 kilometers from the border, respectively. In Ryazan, an oil refinery was illuminated by explosions, while in Bryansk, the Kremniy El plant was also hit.

▪️ On January 26, UAVs once again struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery, more than 500 kilometers from the border.

▪️ On January 29, drones successfully hit one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, located in Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region, approximately 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Sources: Kyiv Insider, Open source intelligence, Deep State

Ukraine’s military has destroyed an estimated 1,050 of Russia’s much vaunted air-defense systems since February 2022 when the full-blown invasion started. 

In a recent report, Forbes says, “Russia faces a significant shortage.”

Much of Moscow’s air defense capability is based on upgraded Soviet equipment and have been largely deployed to protect front-line troops, leaving its country proper naked to Ukrainian drone attacks that target critical infrastructure. 

Open source intelligence site Oryxspionkop has only visually documented 274 Russian air-defense systems destroyed to date. 

The demands of protecting more than 600 miles of front line, however, leave, Russia exposed to cross-border attacks from Ukraine that target their oil, energy, and military plant facilities. 

“These losses make it increasingly challenging for Russia to ensure adequate coverage for domestic sites while continuing to protect its forces in Ukraine,” Forbes says in a Jan. 24 analysis. 

Sources: Oryxspioenkop.com, Forbes, Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

Chasiv Yar in Donetsk oblast still contested

Despite what Russian military bloggers say, there is visual evidence that the strategic town of Chasiv Yar is still being fought over in the Donetsk region. 

These pictures show a town that had a pre-war population of 14,000 reduced to rubble from constant and incessant Russian bombardment. 

Personnel of the Donbas Special Forces Battalion of the National Guard Brigade, together with other related units, “heroically defend the city, restrain the offensive of the Russian occupiers, and take measures to prevent the enemy from advancing deep into Ukrainian territory,” Ukraine’s Joint Task Force says in a social media post. 

Source: Joint Task Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Ukraine’s 3rd Special Operations Forces retake a Russian-held position, eliminating four occupiers

A trench once held by Ukrainian forces was retaken with a combat mission carried out by the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment “in one of the hottest axes of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” the unit said on social media. 

It was a meticulously planned mission, the military unit said, and the 1-minute video shows them disembarking from armored vehicles before they storm a trench network, killing four Russian troops at an undisclosed location. 

Thirteen kilograms of general-purpose plastic Semtex explosives based on hexogen and tetranitro pentaerythritol were used to dislodge the Russian occupiers. 

“The massive explosion left nothing but a crater and the remains of Russian troops,” the Ukrainian troops said. 

They reported exfiltrating safely without any casualties. 

Source: 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment

Analysis: ‘The Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens’

EXCERPT: 

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted and intensified the Russo-Iranian relationship. Tehran has leveraged Moscow’s growing material and financial requirements to sustain its war effort and support Tehran’s own domestic and foreign policy objectives. The core of the Russo-Iranian relationship is a mutually binding interest in challenging and eventually overturning the US-led world order. This shared ideological core allowed the Russo-Iranian relationship to weather and survive tensions and challenges that have arisen since 2022, and the United States should not expect this ideological core to weaken in the years ahead. Russo-Iranian cooperation is occurring along seven major axes that relate to and overlap in the defense, economic, and political spheres. It is also not a perfectly one-to-one relationship — Moscow and Tehran are seeking different outcomes from their collaboration. The interrelated nature of these nodes of cooperation should emphasize to the United States and its allies that the success of Russia cannot be separated from the success of Iran.

War Heroes

Cpt. Nazar Naberezhnyi, a Hero of Ukraine awardee (posthumously), was killed in action in the Donetsk regional town of Avdiivka on Jan. 29 a year ago. 

He was an officer and leader in the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade and a commander of an assault company, and his area of expertise was that of being an astute scout. 

His other military accolades include medals “For the Defense of Ukraine,” “For the Defense of Avdiivka,” and the Order “For Courage”of the 3rd degree.” 

Source: Ukrainskyi Chasopys

• The Jamestown Foundation:Russia expands nuclear energy influence in Southeast Asia

• NHK World Japan: Poll finds Ukrainians finds compromise solution to war

• RFE/RL: Investigation: How China feeds critical rare minerals to Russia’s war machine

• Hromadske: Ukrainian drones hit missile arsenal and oil pumping station in Russia

• The Wall Street Journal: US State Department reverses near full-stop of foreign aid