Victory Chronicles-DAY 1044

Maj. Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational and strategic unit of troops, reports that Russian occupation forces are not launching a direct attack on Pokrovsk but are instead attempting to bypass and surround the city.

Trehubov said that the enemy is moving through neighbouring population centers and villages, and then launching attacks to bypass Pokrovsk. The city is heavily defended and is why the enemy does not want to engage in a direct assault. 

The enemy’s focus is on breaking lines of communication that supply Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk rather than engaging in urban battles. In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian defenders successfully repulsed 38 assaults and offensives along the Pokrovsk axis. This area is the hottest spot in the ongoing conflict.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, visits Ukrainian-occupied Russian region of Kursk and awards soldiers for bravery. He stated that the heroic actions of the Ukrainian military resulted in the enemy being forced to keep a significant number of forces in the Kursk region and diverting reserves from other areas. As a result, the enemy’s losses in the Kursk region amounted to over 38,000 personnel and more than 1,000 pieces of equipment.

Overnight on Jan. 2, Russia attacked Stepnohirsk in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, using a guided bomb that destroyed a five-story building, killing a male civilian. 

The search and rescue operation lasted for more than five hours. Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, confirmed this information and he stated that the enemy attacked Stepnohirsk multiple times with rocket launchers, causing significant damage.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence’s (HUR) 13th special operations unit successfully destroyed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter using a Magura V5 maritime attack drone equipped with missiles. This marks the first time in history that this has been accomplished. The incident occurred on Dec. 31 in the Black Sea near Cape Tarkhankut near the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. The drone utilized the latest R-73 SeeDragon missiles to destroy the aircraft. Another enemy helicopter was also damaged but was able to make it back to its home airfield. 

Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove – in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people. 

Their rate of advance largely stalled around the few more urban settlements that Russian forces sought to take last year. Russia’s military took roughly four months to seize Avdiivka in late 2023 and early 2024 and two months each on efforts to seize and envelop Selydove and Kurakhove in 2024. 

They also incurred significant personnel losses during efforts to take these population centers, and Ukrainian officials have recently estimated that Russian forces lost nearly 3,000 personnel along the Pokrovsk axis in two weeks in mid-December 2024.

 ISW has not assessed that any of the settlements that Russian forces seized in 2024 are operationally significant, as seizing these settlements has not allowed Russian forces to threaten any notable Ukrainian defensive nodes, and Russian forces have failed to conduct the kind of rapid, mechanized maneuver necessary to convert these tactical gains into deep penetrations of Ukraine’s rear. ISW currently assesses that Russian forces must capture approximately 8,559 square kilometers, which include significant Ukrainian defensive positions and large cities along Ukraine’s fortress belt, to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk.

Ukrainian forces have yet to stop Russian forces from advancing in their priority sectors, however, and Western aid remains critical to Ukraine’s ability to stabilize the frontline in 2025. Ukrainian defenders have largely stalled Russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but Russian forces continue to make gradual, grinding advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions. Ongoing Ukrainian manpower constraints and morale issues are also creating vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s defensive lines, and Ukrainian officials must address these issues and steel defenders against Russian infantry assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Russian forces, and Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin, are currently operating under a theory of victory that assumes that Russian forces can indefinitely advance in Ukraine but fails to account for the possibility that Ukrainian forces could inflict losses sufficient to stall or stop future Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian forces, with support from Ukraine’s Western allies, must therefore work to integrate Ukrainian drone operations, sufficiently resourced artillery and long-range strike capabilities, and committed Ukrainian infantry units to defend against Russian advances and undermine Putin’s theory of victory in 2025.

Senior combat medic Yevhen Shumilov, nicknamed Met, was killed on April 30, 2024 near the village of Novovodyane, Luhansk region. During the enemy’s assault, he covered his wounded comrade-in-arms. 

The defender was 32 years old. Shumilov was born in Kyiv. From an early age, he was engaged in dancing, then joined an acting circle. This determined his future life. ‘He probably got his talent from his grandfather. My father was a very good singer, and his stories were like one-man shows,’ says his mother Kateryna. After graduating from school, Shumilov entered the Kyiv National I. K. Karpenko-Kary Theatre, Film and Television University on a state-funded basis.

After graduating, Shumilov began his dream career as an actor. For eight years, he played in private alternative theatres, starred in TV series and took part in television projects. In his spare time, he loved travelling, hiking, skiing, watching films and singing. He adored the sea. In his youth, he loved rollerblading, skating, cycling… Yevhen tried to get to the front three times. It was only in August 2022 that he was mobilised. At first he was a signalman, then he changed his profession to a combat medic. Soon after, Yevhen was promoted to sergeant and became a senior combat medic with the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade.

“He saved so many lives! I talked to a medic who served with him side by side. She told me: Zhenya did something incredible. He went to the frontline himself, even though he didn’t have a job description, and took out hundreds of hopeless people. He saved so many limbs – in situations where others would have done amputation, he found solutions. He saved hundreds of lives! God worked through his hands,” says the defender’s mother. 

Shumilov was awarded the Cross of the Brave and the Golden Cross badges. The defender was buried on the Alley of Heroes in the town of Vyshneve, Kyiv region. Shumilov is survived by his mother, stepfather and relatives.

*Yevhen’s story on the Heroes Memorial – a platform for stories about the fallen defenders of Ukraine.

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