Daily Mail’s 20-year forecast: Russia-NATO war scenario

The UK daily newspaper Daily Mail has published a likely scenario of a Russian attack on NATO countries. The publication gathered expert opinions from former US Army commander Ben Hodges and several military experts. 

Overall, the analytical material describes the potential development of events over the next 20 years. The scenario consists of two phases of the conflict – cyber warfare and missile strikes, followed by a land, sea, and air invasion.

“In 2024, Russia’s defence spending will grow to $140 billion – a third of the national budget. These changes do not make sense if they are aimed solely at the current adversary – Ukraine – a country one-third the population of Russia and barely holding its own. The changes only make sense if Russia is preparing for a war against a major foe, like NATO,” said Retired Brigadier General Kevin Ryan.

Experts say that Russia’s conflict against NATO will begin with massive cyber attacks and missile strikes on targets in Eastern Europe and beyond. The Kremlin will attempt to disrupt satellite communications with these strikes. “Russia will not be bashful about using hundreds of long-range precision missiles against civilian targets all over Europe,” said retired US General Ben Hodges, former commander of NATO’s Ground Forces in Europe.

Experts emphasize that Russians show little concern for the consequences of their war crimes. “So, if they’ve made the decision to attack NATO, they’ll be launching missiles and long-range drones at all the main seaports and airports and transportation hubs, as well as major military headquarters, airfields, that sort of thing,” Hodges added.

Later, Russia will initiate a land, sea, and air invasion. The attack may begin in the Suwałki Gap between Poland, Lithuania, and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This would allow Moscow to expand the invasion into Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland. The course of events will depend on NATO’s reaction. “If we hesitated, that failure to live up to our obligations under Article 5 to protect member states… it would break the alliance. It would be a staggering blow to NATO if we didn’t live up to what we said we were going to do,” Hodges added.

Analysts suggest that China could exploit the war between Russia and NATO for a potential invasion of Taiwan. At the same time, Iran may directly participate in the conflict on Russia’s side. 

According to analysts, wars between Russia and NATO can be avoided, says Hodges. “This scenario is not inevitable.  But we need to be clear-eyed about the threat. The best way to prevent a Russian attack on NATO is to help Ukraine defeat Russia now.”