Analysts fear that Donbas may eventually fall completely under Russian control, but they acknowledge that the timeliness of Western aid will determine the future of the war.
“There is a very high risk that Ukraine will continue to gradually lose territory,” said William Alberk, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on CNBC.
For several weeks in a row, Russian artillery has been destroying Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. These are the last cities under the control of Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast. On Monday, Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said that Russia controlled most of Severodonetsk, although fierce fighting continued. And all the bridges across the Siversky Donets River were destroyed. To make matters worse, the Russian army has resumed its Kharkiv offensive, although it is most recently in retreat again.
“Compared to the first phase of the offensive, the Russian side has improved its operational and logistical activity, as well as enjoying an advantage in the sky and capabilities of electronic warfare. Meanwhile, Ukraine is suffering from slow delivery of arms from its allies. And there are too few of these weapons,” added Andrius Tours, a Teneo Intelligence adviser.
“I fear that if Ukraine fails to break through Russia’s front line and push the Russian army back, forcing Russia to further reduce its territorial ambitions, we will witness a semi-frozen conflict that will last for decades or more,” said Mr Alberk.
